AGP Executive Report

Federal Tensions: Doolow commissioner Mohamed Hussein Abdi Lafeey said his district would follow the policy of Ethiopian forces stationed there until a capable Somali government takes control nationwide, underscoring strains between local authorities and Mogadishu. Security: Somalia’s intelligence agency says it killed Bashir Ahmed Haji Nunow, a former al-Shabaab Amniyat chief, in a joint operation in Jilib. NISA accused him of involvement in major attacks, including the 2017 Soobe bombing. Public Services: Health Minister Ali Haji Adan told lawmakers that emergency funding will keep nearly 600 at-risk facilities open through December as donor support declines. Regional Diplomacy: After Somalia joined Egypt, Eritrea and Sudan in calling for coastal states to govern Red Sea affairs, Ethiopian state media criticized President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s diplomacy. Governance and Investment: Parliament Speaker Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur urged stronger institutions and public accountability at an international parliamentary gathering, while Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre told an EU-Somalia business forum the country is seeking investment in resources, infrastructure and other sectors.

Red Sea diplomacy: Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan issued the El Alamein joint declaration saying Red Sea governance is the job of coastal states, reaffirming freedom of navigation and rejecting unilateral moves as Ethiopia’s Red Sea push and regional tensions grow. Ethiopia-Tigray spillover: Fighting in northern Ethiopia’s Tigray continues as federal forces retake Mekelle and Eritrea cuts ties with Ethiopia, raising fears of a wider Horn of Africa conflict; the EU warned of escalation and urged de-escalation and full implementation of the Pretoria cessation deal. Somalia security & pirates: Indonesia says four Indonesian crew members freed after a Somali pirate ordeal are receiving medical and psychological care on return home, following a Puntland-led rescue; separate reports also note remaining Pakistani sailors and bodies from the MT Honour 25 case are being repatriated. Regional cooperation: Eritrea’s President Isaias returned from Egypt after the quadrilateral summit with Somalia, Sudan and Egypt focused on security, trade and development cooperation. Mogadishu politics (context): A Puntland-focused political reflection highlights rising expectations for fair competition and accountability, with younger voices pushing for practical benefits from federal ties.

Regional Diplomacy: Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan issued a joint declaration in New Alamein calling for peaceful, political solutions amid Sudan’s civil war and Ethiopia’s renewed fighting, backing a Sudanese-led process and stressing Red Sea governance by coastal states. Red Sea & Nile Tensions: The same summit track reinforces the wider standoff over Ethiopia’s Red Sea access and Nile water rights, with Egypt reiterating Nile shares as “historical and legal” and rejecting unilateral moves. Somalia Flood Preparedness: Somali Red Crescent Society and ICRC trained 72 responders (60 volunteers) for expected El Niño flooding along the Juba and Shabelle rivers, with boats pre-positioned in flood-prone districts. Piracy Aftermath: Pakistan’s foreign ministry says the last three surviving crew of MT Honour 25 were rescued, flown to Addis Ababa, and expected to depart for Karachi on Oct 7, after earlier bodies and survivors were repatriated. Security Flashpoint (Jubaland): In Beled Hawo, local officials allege federal-linked troop movements from Luuq and Doolow toward army camps, raising fresh tension on the Kenyan border. Somalia–Turkey Tech Push: Erdoğan announced Turkey will build a spaceport in Somalia as part of broader space cooperation.

Red Sea diplomacy: Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan issued a joint declaration in New Alamein calling for political solutions, reaffirming freedom of navigation, and saying Red Sea governance belongs to coastal states—while also rejecting unilateral actions that could harm Nile water use. Ethiopia’s counter: Ethiopia’s foreign ministry said any Red Sea and Abay/Blue Nile talks must account for Ethiopia’s geography and “legitimate interests,” as Abiy Ahmed again demanded access to the sea. Somalia’s sovereignty line: The same Alamein framework explicitly backs Somalia’s unity and territorial integrity and rejects moves that support Somaliland. Maritime crisis update: Somalia and EU naval forces helped secure the release of three remaining Pakistani crew members from MT Honour 25; they were flown to Addis Ababa and are expected to return to Pakistan soon. Domestic governance: Somalia’s Civil Aviation Authority denied reports that Mogadishu’s Aden Adde airport will shut, saying flights continue normally. Regional politics: Puntland’s acting leadership reiterated it will not secede from Somalia, dismissing claims from Mogadishu about Puntland’s intentions. Security deal: Al-Shabaab announced an agreement with the Hawadle clan in Hiiraan to end four years of fighting, though terms were not yet fully confirmed.

Maritime Security & Diplomacy: Somalia-backed efforts helped Pakistan secure the release of the last three surviving crew of the hijacked tanker MT Honour 25. Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said Imran Ali, Muhammad Yasin and Syed Husain Yousuf were flown to Addis Ababa and are expected to depart for Karachi on the first available Ethiopian Airlines flight around Oct. 7, after earlier flights brought four injured crew and the remains of three sailors to Pakistan. Regional Sovereignty & Red Sea Governance: Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia reaffirmed that Red Sea navigation and governance are the exclusive responsibility of coastal states, while rejecting unilateral actions affecting Nile water rights and opposing interference in internal affairs, including any recognition of “Somaliland.” Ethiopia-Tigray Spillover Risk: Ethiopia said federal forces took full control of Mekelle as fighting with Tigray rebels intensifies, with leaders in Egypt warning the conflict could widen across the Horn. Flood Risk in Somalia: SODMA warned the Shabelle River has breached at 366 critical points, raising fears of flooding amid heavy rains and El Niño, with insecurity hampering maintenance. Humanitarian & Rights Watch: A new report says over 500 million Christians face severe Bible access restrictions, listing Somalia among the countries with “maximum restrictions.”

Horn of Africa Diplomacy: Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan issued the Alamein Joint Declaration, urging political solutions, backing Sudan’s institutions, and stressing Red Sea governance by coastal states while rejecting interference and unilateral moves affecting Nile water rights. Ethiopia–Tigray Escalation: Ethiopian federal forces reportedly took full control of Mekelle as TPLF temporarily pulled out, while residents fear the conflict could “drag on” and regionalization could widen the war. Somalia–Israel Standoff: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud told Al Jazeera Mogadishu will not accept any Israeli presence “under any circumstances,” warning Israel aims to use Berbera’s port and airport to draw Somalia into Middle East tensions. Sea Access Talks: Mohamud said Somalia could allow Ethiopia commercial use of two or three Somali ports if Mogadishu receives a formal request and any deal stays under Somali sovereignty. Somalia Security & Politics: Al-Shabaab announced a deal with the Hawadle clan in Hiran to end a four-year conflict, amid reported tensions with the federal government. Maritime Aftermath: Injured Pakistani crew and remains of three sailors from the MT Honour 25 hijacking arrived in Karachi after Somalia’s rescue operation off Puntland.

Israel-Somaliland Tensions: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud told Al Jazeera Somalia will not accept any Israeli military presence “under any circumstances,” alleging Israel aims to set up a naval base in Berbera and use its airport, and warning Mogadishu won’t be pulled into Middle East crises. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt hosts a four-way summit in Alamein with Somalia, Eritrea and Sudan as Ethiopia’s Tigray war and diplomatic rifts with Eritrea deepen, with sources saying military cooperation and Red Sea shipping protection are on the agenda. Tigray Developments: Ethiopian federal forces reportedly control Mekelle while communications return, as renewed fighting raises fears of a wider Horn of Africa conflict. Somalia-Economy Push: Mohamud used the Alamein Africa Business Forum to pitch trade and investment, saying Somalia is rebuilding and seeking partnerships. Elections in Hirshabelle: Somalia’s electoral commission announced Hirshabelle assembly and local council results, with the Justice and Unity Party leading local seats. Piracy Aftermath (Pakistan): Bodies of three Pakistani sailors and four injured crew from the MT Honour 25 hijacking departed Addis Ababa for Karachi, following Somalia’s operation that freed the tanker and captured 16 pirates.

Somalia-Israel Standoff: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said Mogadishu will not accept any Israeli military presence “under any circumstances,” warning against plans tied to Berbera and Somaliland and stressing sovereignty. Regional Diplomacy: Mohamud met Egypt’s Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Alamein, with both sides pledging tighter coordination on Horn of Africa and Red Sea security and support for Somalia’s unity and institutions. Horn of Africa Flashpoint: Renewed fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray is pushing fears of a wider regional war as rebels reportedly abandon Mekelle and federal forces advance, with spillover risks into neighboring crises. Pakistan Repatriation After Somalia Piracy: Bodies of three Pakistani nationals killed during the MT Honour 25 tanker operation reached Addis Ababa as arrangements move toward onward flights to Karachi, while Pakistan also announced compensation and housing for families. EAC Governance: Somalia’s parliament speaker chaired an EAC Speakers’ Bureau meeting in Arusha, where lawmakers agreed to push governments to clear unpaid contributions to the bloc. Humanitarian Funding: The UN released $160 million for urgent aid across 12 crisis-hit countries, including Somalia.

Regional Parliament Diplomacy: Somali Parliament Speaker Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur chaired the 21st EAC Speakers’ Bureau meeting in Arusha, highlighting progress on Somalia’s constitution, laws passed, and security/rule-of-law priorities. Human Rights & UN Engagement: Somalia’s Family and Human Rights Minister met UN human rights officials in Geneva to discuss deeper cooperation and plans for an OHCHR presence in Mogadishu. Economic Reforms: Finance Minister Bihi Iman Egeh met Norway’s ambassador to push financial-system reforms and public financial management support. Galmudug Politics: The Justice and Solidarity Party won big in Galmudug’s court-ordered rerun, taking 67 of 89 seats in the House and 179 of 243 local council seats, with Towfiiq barred from the ballot. Humanitarian Funding: The UN released $160m from its emergency fund for 12 underfunded crises, including $16m for Somalia. Security & Troops: Ethiopia is reportedly preparing to withdraw over 3,000 troops from Somalia amid fighting at home, though Mogadishu says it received no notice. Piracy Aftermath: Pakistan announced compensation and housing for families of three Pakistani sailors killed during the MT Honour 25 rescue; UN and maritime bodies also renewed calls to protect seafarers.

Galmudug Politics: Somalia’s electoral commission says court-ordered rerun results are out for Galmudug, with NIEBC reporting repeat voting outcomes for the House of Representatives and local councils, reshaping the political balance after the legal dispute. Humanitarian Funding: The UN released $160 million in emergency aid for 12 underfunded crises, including $16 million for Somalia, with UN officials warning that money won’t reach people unless access barriers are removed. Piracy and Diplomacy: Pakistan says four of 10 crew members from the hijacked MT Honour 25 off Somalia have been retrieved and are due to arrive in Karachi on Oct. 3, while three others killed in the operation are being repatriated and the remaining three are still aboard—prompting fast-tracked legal steps and continued coordination with partners. Maritime Security: The IMO chief mourned five seafarers killed during the Honour 25 rescue in Somali waters, calling again for stronger protection for crews. Regional Security: Qatar reaffirmed support for Somalia’s institutions at the UN Human Rights Council, urging reforms and sustained international backing for stability and sovereignty.

Ethiopia–Eritrea Rift: Fighting in northern Ethiopia between federal forces and Tigrayan rebels is spilling into diplomacy, with Ethiopia expelling Eritrean diplomats and closing its embassy in Asmara, while Eritrea cuts ties in a tit-for-tat move—raising fresh fears of a wider Horn of Africa conflict. Regional Security & Shipping: Reports also warn of growing links between Yemen’s Houthis and Somalia’s al-Shabaab, with analysts saying arms, training, and maritime access could widen threats to Red Sea and Gulf of Aden shipping. Somalia–UN Support: Qatar reaffirmed backing for Somalia at the UN Human Rights Council, while the UN allocated $160M from CERF to 12 underfunded humanitarian crises including Somalia. Piracy Aftermath: Pakistan says four Pakistani crew from the hijacked MT Honour 25 will arrive in Karachi on Oct 3, while the “mortal remains” of three killed crew are being repatriated—highlighting ongoing maritime insecurity off Somalia. South West Reconciliation: A delegation led by former Lower House speaker Mohamed Mursal arrived in Baidoa to push dialogue amid tensions as forces loyal to Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen remain positioned around the city. Somali Regional Politics: In Jigjiga, Mustafe Mohamud Omar Cagjar was reelected for another five-year term and named a new 27-member executive council.

UN Human Rights: Qatar told the UN Human Rights Council it backs Somalia’s state-building, security, rule of law and a new human rights office, urging longer-term development linked to emergency aid. Piracy & Diplomacy: Pakistan says survivors of the hijacked MT Honour 25 have been moved to Garowe, while three Pakistani crew died and four others were injured during the Puntland-led recovery; repatriation efforts are underway. Regional Politics: In Ethiopia’s Somali Region, Mustafe Cagjar was reelected for a new five-year term as lawmakers also renewed top regional posts. Military Developments: Reports say Ethiopia may withdraw 3,000+ troops from Somalia amid renewed fighting at home; Mogadishu says it was not informed. Food Security Risk: A UN official warned that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could worsen fertilizer shortages, naming Somalia among the most exposed countries. Security & Rights: A new global Bible access report lists Somalia among countries where restrictions make Scripture access difficult or dangerous.

Maritime Security & Diplomacy: Pakistan says it is coordinating with Somali authorities to repatriate bodies and treat survivors after pirates killed five crew members during the MT Honour 25 recovery, with three Pakistanis among the dead and four injured. Humanitarian Crisis in Baidoa: The ICRC reports 148 wounded treated after heavy fighting in Baidoa, while UNICEF warns children are again bearing the brunt and urges protection of schools and health facilities. UK Calls for Restraint: Britain urges rival sides in Baidoa to de-escalate and protect civilians as the fighting worsens an already fragile humanitarian situation. Internal Governance Pressure: Somalia’s federal government began enforcing NIRA ID requirements for domestic travel, disrupting flights for Puntland passengers who lack the card. Regional Military Fallout: Ethiopia is reportedly planning to withdraw more than 3,000 troops from Somalia amid renewed fighting at home, though Mogadishu says it has not been officially notified. Security & Foreign Influence: Turkey’s growing military footprint in Somalia is being pulled into local political violence, with accusations of airstrikes around Baidoa and Doolow. Education Support: Qatar Charity marked the graduation of 162 sponsored students from Mogadishu University, highlighting continued investment in higher education.

Maritime Security & Piracy: UAE condemned the killing and wounding of crew during Puntland’s operation to free the hijacked MT Honour 25 off Somalia, where pirates reportedly killed five before the rescue; Pakistan’s Foreign Office said three Pakistani sailors died and four others were injured, while Puntland said 16 pirates were detained. Diplomacy & Regional Politics: Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud kept up a diplomatic push, meeting Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed and then Djibouti’s Guelleh, as Baidoa fighting and wider Horn tensions test alliances. Elections & Governance: Direct voting began for parliamentary and municipal elections in Galmudug and Hirshabelle, with curfews and security measures in place as voters chose representatives. Humanitarian Crisis: UNICEF warned that renewed clashes in Baidoa are hitting children and damaging health facilities as hunger worsens under El Niño pressures. Education: Qatar Charity marked the graduation of 162 sponsored students from Mogadishu University, highlighting long-running support for higher education.

Piracy and maritime security: Puntland says it rescued the hijacked MT Honour 25 off Dharin-baar, Bandar Beyla, after pirates killed five crew members before the operation; 16 suspected pirates were arrested and others are being pursued, while a separate tanker (MT Eureka) saw the release of Egyptian sailors after months in captivity. Diplomacy and regional security: Somalia’s President held a working visit with Ethiopia’s PM in Addis Ababa focused on Horn security, with multiple sensitive files reportedly on the agenda, including Baidoa’s defense and the legal basis for counter-terror roles. Governance and budgeting: Somalia’s Deputy Finance Minister concluded public consultations on the 2027 national budget in Mogadishu, gathering input on spending priorities. Humanitarian support: WFP welcomed a $2m Republic of Korea contribution to back home-grown school meals and treat moderate acute malnutrition for 47,500 children as crisis hunger deepens. Energy and investment: Applus+ began offshore rig services in Somalia, providing inspection and certification support for drilling equipment. Parliamentary oversight: Somalia’s Senate Secretary-General attended a pan-African parliamentary administrators conference in South Africa, pushing institutional modernization.

Somalia Security & Governance: Puntland says it has freed the hijacked MT Honour 25 after more than five months in pirate hands, detaining suspects and reporting two wounded pirates; earlier reports from the same operation also say pirates killed five crew members, including three Pakistanis, during an exchange of fire as forces rescued the tanker. Regional Conflict & Red Sea Risks: A new report warns al-Shabaab has built a transactional relationship with Yemen’s Houthis, including training and drone/weapon know-how, raising fears of a wider Red Sea security threat. Baidoa Political Violence: Southwest Somalia’s Laftagareen-aligned forces accuse the federal government and Türkiye of airstrikes on Baidoa that hit civilian areas, as fighting continues around the city. Diplomacy: Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud met Ethiopia’s PM Abiy Ahmed in Addis Ababa to discuss security and political stability in the Horn. Humanitarian Pressure: New hunger findings warn El Niño-linked risks could push millions in the Horn toward crisis, with Baidoa among the worst-hit areas.