AGP Executive Report

Election Crisis Diplomacy: Turkish intelligence is shuttling between President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and opposition figures in Mogadishu, aiming to unblock the election dispute and set up direct talks. Political Crackdown Allegations: Former presidents Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo accuse the government of siege tactics and misuse of security resources against opposition leaders, including cutting services and restricting movement. Women Demand Dialogue: A women-led national peace conference calls for an inclusive, transparent national dialogue to resolve the political and security crisis, warning force can’t deliver lasting settlement. Security Operations vs al-Shabab: Danab commandos carried out raids in Lower Shabelle targeting al-Shabab extortion checkpoints and hideouts, while fighting and raids around Mogadishu continue to raise tensions. Human Cost and Reporting: Somalia’s health ministry says one person was killed and 55 wounded in Mogadishu security incidents, urging careful reporting. Food Security Pressure: UN warnings link Middle East disruption to rising hunger; WFP says millions in Somalia are now acutely food insecure as aid faces funding shortfalls. Investor Confidence Worry: A Mogadishu hotel raid has sparked claims of pressure on businesses tied to opposition figures, with analysts warning of broader economic fallout. UN Security Council Focus: The UN Security Council is set to discuss Somalia amid calls from the AU and IGAD for de-escalation and dialogue. Governance Move: President Mohamud appoints veteran politician Salad Ali Jeelle as senior adviser to strengthen policy and coordination.

Somalia Opposition Crackdown Claims: Former presidents Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo accuse Mogadishu of using state security resources to target political rivals, including cutting electricity, water and food to Ahmed’s compound and restricting movement amid the election dispute. Casualty Figures: Somalia’s Ministry of Health says one person was killed and 55 wounded in Mogadishu security-related incidents on June 3–4, urging caution with unverified reporting. Security Tensions in Mogadishu: Banadir police displayed weapons and vehicles they say were seized from Abdiaziz, where Ahmed had been staying, as opposition-aligned militias and federal forces trade blame for renewed clashes. Elections and Federalism: The UN Security Council is set to discuss Somalia as AU/IGAD push de-escalation; meanwhile, Southwest begins candidate registration for its presidential race, and Somalia’s ambassador to Ethiopia reiterates federal authority should extend to northern cities. Food Security Pressure: WFP warns Iran-linked conflict and high energy prices are pushing millions toward acute hunger, including 2.5 million more in Somalia, while funding shortages force aid cuts. Gulf Diplomacy: GCC Secretary-General reaffirmed support for Somalia’s security and sovereignty in talks with Somalia’s ambassador in Riyadh.

Mogadishu Security Crackdown: Somali security forces carried out searches in Abdiaziz, with Banadir police displaying weapons they say were seized from areas tied to former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, while opposition figures warned the campaign could spark renewed confrontation. Opposition Alarm: The Somali Salvation Forum and Somali Future Council said forces were preparing to target former army commander Gen. Odowaa Yusuf Raage and accused the government of politically motivated raids, including claims that heavy weapons were brought to the Elite Hotel. Political Tensions & Mediation: Turkey is reportedly trying to mediate between President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s camp and opposition leaders after clashes that displaced families and left civilians hurt, as donors urge dialogue. Election Politics in Southwest: The electoral commission began registering candidates for the Southwest presidential race; Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden and Sheikh Aden Mohamed Nur Madobe registered. Food Security Shock: The UN’s WFP warned the Iran-linked crisis is pushing millions more toward acute hunger, including an estimated 2.5 million in Somalia, as aid faces funding shortfalls. Maritime & Trade Pressure: Reports point to renewed piracy concerns and highlight how maritime disruptions and port capacity plans are becoming central to Somalia’s security and investment outlook.

Mogadishu Political Crisis: Somalia’s capital remains on edge after clashes tied to the president’s extended term left at least 13 dead, 189 injured, and about 12,500 families displaced, with UNHCR warning civilians are trapped in crowded neighborhoods. Security Operations: Hours after fighting eased, federal forces launched a sweeping weapons-recovery drive in Abdiaziz, while opposition figures say the campaign is being used to target political rivals. Elite Hotel Standoff: Former security minister Abdullahi Mohamed Nur accused forces of storming and taking control of his Elite Hotel in Abdiaziz, alleging the operation was meant to intimidate him and later “justify” action with staged weapons. Opposition Pushback: The Somali Future Council warned against searches of Gen. Yusuf Odawaa’s home, saying such moves could spark fresh confrontations. Mediation Efforts: Traditional elders and international representatives brokered a preliminary ceasefire deal between the government and Sharif Sheikh Ahmed’s Himilo Qaran, including troop withdrawal and renewed dialogue. Diplomatic Support: Turkey is also reportedly mediating between the government and opposition as AU/IGAD urge de-escalation. Humanitarian Pressure: Separately, UNICEF warned that Middle East-linked transport disruptions and funding gaps are driving up costs and delaying aid, raising risks for children.

Mogadishu Political Crisis: Somalia’s capital saw relative calm return after two days of clashes tied to the fight over President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s extended term, with the government saying opposition militias were disarmed and civilians returned to daily life, though the UN warned the humanitarian impact remains severe. Mediation Push: Former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and ex-PM Hassan Ali Khaire both returned to their homes after mediation, as international partners and clan elders urged them to step down from temporary positions and bring the president to talks over a transitional election framework; senior Turkish officials were also reported to be involved. Diplomatic Signals: Somalia’s foreign minister praised Egypt’s continued political, developmental and security support in a call that stressed unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity amid close monitoring of Mogadishu developments. Regional Pressure: The AU and IGAD urged maximum restraint and de-escalation as the UN Security Council is set to discuss Somalia and AUSSOM in coming weeks. Humanitarian Fallout Beyond Somalia: The UN World Food Programme warned the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption are pushing millions toward acute hunger, including an added 2.5 million people in Somalia.

Mogadishu Calm After Clashes: Somalia’s information ministry says order has been restored in Abdiaziz and Hawlwadag after two days of fighting tied to the election dispute over President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s extended term; it claims opposition militias were disarmed and civilians returned, while the UN warns the humanitarian impact remains severe. Mediation Moves Opposition Leaders: Former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and former PM Hassan Ali Khaire left temporary residences and returned to their homes after international and clan-led mediation, with partners urging them to step back from positions while talks resume. UN Calls for Dialogue: UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged restraint and a return to negotiations after violence erupted ahead of a planned anti-government demonstration that did not take place. EU Visa Pressure on Somalia: EU Justice and Home Affairs ministers discussed restrictive visa measures for Somali nationals, citing doubled irregular arrivals and weak readmission cooperation. Regional Fallout—Hunger Warning: The UN’s WFP says the Middle East war and Strait of Hormuz disruption are driving up food costs, warning millions—including additional people in Somalia—could face acute hunger.

Mogadishu Election Crisis: Heavy gunfire and explosions rocked Mogadishu for a second day as government forces fought opposition-aligned militias over President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s extended term and delayed elections, with residents reporting mortar and rocket-propelled grenade attacks and families fleeing neighborhoods near former PM Hassan Ali Khaire and former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed. International Pressure: The UN and the US urged restraint and dialogue as blame traded between sides; the EU also called for an immediate halt to violence and a return to talks. De-escalation Move: Somali troops reportedly withdrew from some positions around Khaire’s home after mounting domestic and international pressure. Regional Politics: In Baidoa, Southwest State lawmakers elected Mahad Mohamed Sheikh Hassan as speaker and named deputies, a step in regional parliamentary leadership. Piracy Watch: Pakistan warned the release of ten Pakistani sailors held by Somali pirates could take months, citing the tanker’s highly explosive cargo. Security Council Diplomacy: Portugal and Austria won UN Security Council seats, while Kyrgyzstan also secured a first-time seat—Somalia’s seat was replaced.

Mogadishu Political Crisis: Heavy gunfire and explosions rocked Mogadishu as government forces and opposition-allied militias traded fire ahead of planned anti-government protests over President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s one-year term extension after his May 15 expiry, with residents reporting civilians fleeing and property damaged; opposition leaders say security forces attacked residences linked to former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and former PM Hassan Ali Khaire, while the government rejects claims of constitutional violations. International Pressure: The African Union Commission, UN mission, and regional bloc IGAD urged immediate de-escalation, maximum restraint, and dialogue to protect civilians and avoid a wider instability spiral. Political Fallout: Former President Farmaajo blamed Mohamud for the unrest, accusing him of manipulating constitutional and electoral processes and clinging to power. UN Diplomacy Beyond Somalia: Zimbabwe won a UN Security Council non-permanent seat with 182 votes, returning after 33 years, while Kyrgyzstan, Austria, Portugal, and Trinidad and Tobago also secured seats for 2027–2028.

Mogadishu Political Crisis: Heavy armed clashes rocked Mogadishu as government forces and opposition-aligned groups traded blame ahead of a planned anti-government demonstration over President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s extended term. Protest Crackdown Claims: Former PM Hassan Ali Khaire and ex-President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed alleged security forces attacked opposition meetings and targeted their areas, while police said “organized attacks” threatened capital stability. US/UK Diplomacy: The US and UK urged restraint and inclusive dialogue, warning the violence could have lasting consequences for Somalia’s unity and security. Displacement and Disruption: Residents fled parts of Howlwadaag and other neighborhoods as gunfire and explosions disrupted roads and airport access. UN Security Council Shift: Somalia’s seat will end in 2026 as Zimbabwe, Austria, Portugal, Trinidad and Tobago, and Kyrgyzstan were elected non-permanent UNSC members for 2027–28, with Germany failing in its bid. Regional Security: Puntland detained a suspected Islamic State leader in Bari’s Al-Miskaad mountains, while al-Shabaab executed 28 non-Muslim passengers on a Kenya bus.

Mogadishu Political Crisis: Heavy gunfire erupted in central Mogadishu after federal forces raided the home/meeting area of former PM Hassan Ali Khaire, with Khaire accusing President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s camp of attacking ahead of planned opposition protests; witnesses reported RPGs and clashes near Howlwadag/Dabka junction, raising fears of a wider political confrontation. Security Operations: Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency said joint raids in Middle Shabelle and Hiran killed 29 al-Shabaab militants, including a commander, after coordinated operations based on intelligence. Somalia–Kenya Border: Kenyan President William Ruto said the Kenya-Somalia border will remain closed for now, citing regional security, Somalia’s political uncertainty, and funding limits for cross-border security. Somalia–Somaliland Diplomacy: The US said it will not recognize Somaliland’s independence, while reaffirming Somalia’s territorial integrity and keeping a “positive, constructive” engagement with Hargeisa. UN Political Watch: The UN General Assembly elected Austria, Kyrgyzstan, Portugal, Trinidad and Tobago, and Zimbabwe to the Security Council for 2027–2028, with Zimbabwe replacing Somalia.

Somalia Security: Somali forces, with international partners, carried out coordinated operations in Hiran and Middle Shabelle, killing at least 28 al-Shabaab terrorists, including a senior planner linked to attacks in Buulo-burde and Jalalaqsi. Governance & Law: Somalia’s Data Protection Authority ordered all organisations handling personal data to register under the national Data Protection Law, warning of regulatory action for non-compliance. International Support for Security: Mogadishu’s Internal Security minister met EUCAP Somalia officials to expand training and technical support for the police, Darwish forces and the coast guard, stressing national ownership. Disaster Preparedness: Somalia launched a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System with UNDP and the Green Climate Fund, aiming to expand coverage nationwide and cut disaster fatalities by 42% by 2030. Public Order & Protests: Former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed rejected government plans to confine opposition demonstrations to one Mogadishu site, calling it unconstitutional and urging citywide participation. Humanitarian Aid: Qatar Charity distributed food baskets to vulnerable Yemeni, Syrian and Sudanese communities and Somali IDPs in Somalia, supporting nearly 1,900 people.

Disaster Preparedness: Somalia launched a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System with UNDP and the Green Climate Fund, aiming to cut disaster deaths by 42% by 2030 and expand early warning coverage to full national reach, led by the Somalia Disaster Management Agency with a $12.7m GCF grant. Data Governance: Somalia’s Data Protection Authority ordered mandatory registration for all organisations handling personal data, warning of regulatory action for non-compliance. Security Cooperation: Somalia’s Internal Security minister met EUCAP Somalia to expand training and technical support for the police, Darwish forces, and coast guard, stressing national ownership. Humanitarian Support: Qatar Charity distributed food baskets to vulnerable families in Somalia under its “The Greatest Days” campaign, reaching 1,854 people. International Pressure on Elections: UN and partners warned Somalia’s political impasse is worsening, with no clear election path after talks collapsed. Food Aid Crisis: The UN warned of unprecedented global food aid funding gaps, with WFP facing a 75% shortfall and malnutrition services closing.

Somalia Election Crisis: The UN, EU and 17 countries urged Mogadishu and opposition forces to resume dialogue and agree on an election roadmap, warning that the political impasse could destabilize the country; the U.S. separately called for restraint and no actions that fuel violence. Galmudug Talks: Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre is set to travel to Dhusamareb to mediate the Galmudug election standoff between regional President Qoorqoor and the federal government, with consultations reportedly underway in Mogadishu. Federalism Under Strain: A Djiboutian opposition figure accused President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of weakening Somalia’s federal system, pointing to Mogadishu–Puntland tensions over constitutional changes and elections. Southwest State Vote Date: Somalia’s electoral commission set June 10 for Southwest State’s presidential vote, with speaker and deputy speaker elections scheduled earlier in the week amid tightened security after Baidoa clashes. Regional Security Threats: Reports say Houthis and Al-Shabaab are exchanging logistical and military resources, raising fears for Red Sea shipping and Somalia’s security. Humanitarian Support: Qatar Charity distributed food baskets to Yemeni, Syrian and Sudanese communities in Somalia, reaching 1,854 people.

Election Roadmap Pressure: UN, EU and 17 countries urged Somalia’s federal government and opposition to resume dialogue and agree on an election roadmap, warning the political standoff could tip into armed conflict after President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term ended. Galmudug Mediation: Somalia’s outgoing PM Hamza Abdi Barre is set to travel to Dhusamareb to mediate the Galmudug election dispute, after consultative meetings in Mogadishu. Security in the Capital Region: In Jowhar, a grenade attack on a senior army officer’s home and the killing of a soldier raised fresh concerns about stability in Hirshabelle. Frontline Military Posture: In Baidoa, senior officials visited troops and urged fighters loyal to Laftagareen to surrender, as tensions mount ahead of regional leadership elections. Foreign Relations—Egypt: Egypt’s FM met Somalia’s top diplomat in Seoul, reiterating support for Somalia’s unity and pushing for the release of abducted Egyptian sailors. US Military Footprint: A US special operations notice says it is seeking cultural and political advisors in Somalia as the US drawdown continues. Regional Health Watch: Africa CDC warned Ebola could spread regionally due to limited licensed vaccines and heavy cross-border movement, listing Somalia among high-risk countries. Piracy Update: Pakistani crew members on the hijacked tanker Honour 25 remain in captivity 40 days after seizure, with ransom talks still stalled.

Human Rights & Accountability: Somali MPs have urged international scrutiny after accusing senior Banadir police and military officials of serious human rights violations, calling for independent investigations and monitoring. Security Operations: Somalia’s army says it killed a senior Al-Shabaab commander in Lower Shabelle during a planned operation, as forces continue targeted offensives. Southwest State Crisis: Fighting in Baidoa between federal forces and Laftagareen loyalists briefly disrupted control, even as Southwest lawmakers were sworn in—showing how politics and security are colliding. Galmudug Election Talks: A delegation returned to Mogadishu after consultations in Dhuusamareeb, with proposals on how Qoorqoor could participate in elections and disputes over the electoral commission. Diplomacy Under Strain: Somalia recalled its ambassador to Kenya over a photo controversy tied to an avocado conference, with an internal review underway amid wider Israel-related tensions. Regional Health Response: The EAC announced an emergency meeting of health ministers to coordinate Ebola containment after outbreaks in eastern DRC and cases in Uganda. Maritime Security: Reports point to a resurgence of Somali piracy, including a hijacked fuel tanker and renewed concern over attacks off the Somali coast.

Southwest State Crisis in Baidoa: Fighting flared again in Baidoa as troops battled fighters loyal to ousted regional leader Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen, with police saying attackers were repelled and calm restored, while witnesses reported deaths including civilians. Regional Politics & Elections: The clashes unfolded alongside the swearing-in of newly elected Southwest lawmakers, underscoring how leadership disputes and constitutional changes are spilling into street-level violence. Federal Security Briefings: Somalia’s Lower House Speaker Sheikh Adan Mohamed Nur Madobe met senior military and intelligence officials for a briefing on the security operation in Baidoa after the clashes. Somalia–Kenya Diplomatic Row: Mogadishu recalled its ambassador to Kenya, Jibril Abdullahi, for urgent consultations after controversy over his attendance at a Nairobi “Avocado Conference,” amid wider Israel–Somaliland sensitivities. Horn of Africa Health Watch: East African Community health ministers set an emergency virtual meeting to coordinate regional actions as Ebola spreads from DRC to Uganda. Security Cooperation: Somalia’s defence minister held talks in Moscow with Russia on expanding bilateral defence collaboration.